信息物理耦合特征下变电站内生脆弱性和扰动后风险评估
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1.北京市能源电力信息安全工程技术研究中心(华北电力大学),北京 102206;2.国网北京市电力公司电力科学研究院,北京 100071

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国家科技重大专项资助(2025ZD1500605)


Endogenous vulnerability and post-disturbance risk assessment of substations considering cyber-physical coupling characteristics
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1. Beijing Engineering Research Center of Energy Electric Power Information Security, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China; 2. Beijing Electric Power Research Institute, State Grid Beijing Electric Power Company, Beijing 100071, China

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    摘要:

    针对数智化变电站信息物理强耦合性引发系统脆弱性的问题,提出适配时序安全场景的广域系统关键节点辨识和风险评估方法。首先,基于IEC 61850协议栈对象模型和通信模式,分析典型报文核心功能边界、时序同步依赖机制与内生脆弱特征。其次,因开放式协议存在未经授权访问威胁,提出变电站网络风险传导路径和广义断线跳闸扰动方式。然后,针对国家背书型攻击具备的广域致瘫和链路隐蔽特征,提出多站点、潜入式的精准时间同步协同扰动方式。最后,基于直流最优潮流模型和序贯蒙特卡洛方法,构建变电站扰动风险评估框架。在IEEE-RTS79测试系统中进行仿真验证。结果表明,针对关键节点组合开展协同攻击将导致严重的系统级联失效,相较于单点攻击,协同攻击显著增加了系统失负荷风险,验证了利用时间同步协议开展多站点扰动的有效性。

    Abstract:

    To address the system vulnerability issue induced by strong cyber-physical coupling in smart substations, a wide-area critical node identification and risk assessment method tailored to time-sequence security scenarios is proposed. First, based on the IEC 61850 protocol stack object model and communication patterns, the core functional boundaries of typical messages, time-synchronization dependency mechanisms, and inherent vulnerability characteristics are analyzed. Second, given the unauthorized access threats in open protocols, substation network risk propagation paths and generalized trip-type disturbance patterns are proposed. Then, in response to the characteristics of state-sponsored attacks featuring wide-area incapacitation and link-layer stealth, a multi-site, stealth-infiltration-based concurrent precise time-synchronization disturbance method is proposed. Finally, based on the DC optimal power flow model and the sequential Monte Carlo method, a substation disturbance risk assessment framework is constructed. The proposed framework is validated through simulations on the IEEE-RTS79 test system. The results demonstrate that coordinated attacks targeting critical node combinations can induce severe system cascading failures. Compared with single-point attacks, coordinated attacks significantly increase the system load-loss risk, thereby validating the effectiveness of conducting multi-site disturbances using time synchronization protocols.

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强 仁,龚钢军,王大为,等.信息物理耦合特征下变电站内生脆弱性和扰动后风险评估[J].电力系统保护与控制,2026,54(19):85-95.[QIANG Ren, GONG Gangjun, WANG Dawei, et al. Endogenous vulnerability and post-disturbance risk assessment of substations considering cyber-physical coupling characteristics[J]. Power System Protection and Control,2026,V54(19):85-95]

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  • 收稿日期:2026-04-22
  • 最后修改日期:2026-07-14
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-09-28
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