基于多尺度并行特征融合与 Kolmogorov-Arnold 网络重构的短期电力负荷预测
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山东科技大学电气与自动化工程学院,山东 青岛 266590

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国家自然科学基金青年项目资助 (52307115);山东省自然科学基金项目资助 (ZR2022ME21)


Short-term power load forecasting based on multi-scale parallel feature fusion and Kolmogorov-Arnold network reconstruction
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College of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao 266590, China

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    摘要:

    针对短期电力负荷强非线性特征及传统分解 - 集成模型存在的特征交互不足与线性重构误差问题,提出一种基于多尺度并行特征融合与柯尔莫哥洛夫 - 阿诺网络 (Kolmogorov-Arnold network, KAN) 重构的短期负荷预测模型。首先,构建特征优选与信号分解策略,利用皮尔森相关系数 - 最大互信息系数 (Pearson correlation coefficient- maximal information coefficient, PCC-MIC) 综合相关性分析剔除冗余气象特征,并引入变分模态分解 (variational mode decomposition, VMD) 降低序列非平稳性。其次,设计 Informer 与时间卷积网络 (temporal convolutional network, TCN) 并行提取的双通道架构。然后,引入自适应门控融合机制 (adaptive gated fusion mechanism, AGFM),通过学习时变权重系数,自适应调节不同时间步的特征关注度,实现了多尺度特征的精准融合。最后,引入 KAN 替代传统线性输出层,依托其可学习 B - 样条激活函数,实现了从高维融合特征到负荷数值的自适应非线性映射。算例分析表明,所提模型在多项评价指标上均优于现有主流模型,具有更高的预测精度,为电力系统规划和稳定运行提供了可靠的依据。

    Abstract:

    Addressing the strong nonlinearity of short-term power loads and the deficits of insufficient feature interaction and linear reconstruction errors in traditional decomposition-ensemble models, this paper proposes a short-term load forecasting model based on multi-scale parallel feature fusion and Kolmogorov-Arnold network (KAN) reconstruction. First, a feature optimization and signal decomposition strategy combining Pearson correlation coefficient-maximal information coefficient (PCC-MIC) correlation analysis and variational mode decomposition (VMD) is established to filter redundant meteorological features and mitigate sequence non-stationarity. Second, a dual-channel architecture is designed for parallel extraction using Informer and temporal convolutional network (TCN). Then, an adaptive gated fusion mechanism (AGFM) learns time-varying weights to dynamically regulate feature attention of different time steps for precise multi-scale fusion. Finally, KAN is introduced to replace conventional linear output layers. Leveraging learnable B-spline activation functions, KAN enables adaptive nonlinear mapping from high-dimensional fused features to load values. Case studies demonstrate that the proposed model significantly outperforms mainstream baselines in prediction accuracy, offering a reliable reference for power system planning and stable operation.

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于永进,鉴奕霖,刘琪,等.基于多尺度并行特征融合与 Kolmogorov-Arnold 网络重构的短期电力负荷预测[J].电力系统保护与控制,2026,54(12):176-187.[YU Yongjin, JIAN Yilin, LIU Qi, et al. Short-term power load forecasting based on multi-scale parallel feature fusion and Kolmogorov-Arnold network reconstruction[J]. Power System Protection and Control,2026,V54(12):176-187]

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  • 收稿日期:2026-01-15
  • 最后修改日期:2026-03-28
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-06-15
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