基于 CVaR 约束的双层主从博弈优化模型及其在多政策场景下的应用研究
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1. 山西大学电力与建筑学院,山西 太原 030013;2. 华中科技大学电气与电子工程学院,湖北 武汉 430074

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国家自然科学基金项目资助(52507121);山西省基础研究计划项目资助(202503021212088);山西省高等学校科技创新项目资助(2025L006)


A bi-level leader-follower game optimization model based on CVaR constraints and its application in multi-policy scenarios
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1. School of Electric Power and Architecture, Shanxi University, Taiyuan 030013, China; 2. School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China

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    摘要:

    在政策不断更新与现货电价剧烈波动的背景下,售电公司面临收益不确定与风险控制的双重挑战,亟需构建兼顾收益与风险的购售电决策模型。提出一种基于条件风险价值 (conditional value-at-risk, CVaR) 约束的双层主从博弈优化方法:上层售电公司制定长协购电方案与分段售电策略,下层用户以成本最小化原则响应,实现购售电收益 - 风险的协同优化。模型基于历史电价分布生成多场景数据,在对 CVaR 约束进行线性化处理后,采用交替迭代的最优响应方法求解主从博弈均衡,并与传统粒子群算法及基于 CVaR 约束的粒子群算法进行对比验证。结果表明,该方法在满足用户侧 80% 绿电比例约束的前提下,平均收益提升约 7%~9%,在置信水平 α=0.95 下的 CVaR 指标最高下降 96%,显著增强了收益稳健性与风险适应性,为售电公司在高波动电力市场中的策略优化提供了有效参考。

    Abstract:

    Against the backdrop of continuously evolving policies and highly volatile spot electricity prices, electricity retailers face dual challenges of revenue uncertainty and risk control, necessitating decision-making models that balance profit and risk. This paper develops a bi-level leader-follower game optimization framework based on conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) constraints. In the upper level, the retailer formulates long-term contract procurement plans and tiered retail pricing strategies, while in the lower level, users respond based on a cost-minimization principle, achieving coordinated optimization of profit and risk in electricity trading. The model generates multi-scenario data based on historical electricity price distributions. After linearizing the CVaR constraints, an alternating iterative best-response approach is adopted to solve for the Stackelberg game equilibrium. The proposed method is further validated through comparison with traditional particle swarm optimization and CVaR-constrained PSO methods. Results show that, under the 80% green electricity consumption constraint on the user side, the proposed method improves average profit by approximately 7%~9%, while reducing the CVaR metric by up to 96% at a confidence level of α=0.95. This significantly enhances revenue robustness and risk adaptability, providing an effective reference for electricity retailers in optimizing strategies under highly volatile electricity markets.

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武晓冬,赵宇旸,孟祥齐,等.基于 CVaR 约束的双层主从博弈优化模型及其在多政策场景下的应用研究[J].电力系统保护与控制,2026,54(09):14-25.[WU Xiaodong, ZHAO Yuyang, MENG Xiangqi, et al. A bi-level leader-follower game optimization model based on CVaR constraints and its application in multi-policy scenarios[J]. Power System Protection and Control,2026,V54(09):14-25]

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  • 收稿日期:2025-11-15
  • 最后修改日期:2025-12-29
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-04-29
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