基于图神经网络的短期风电功率群体预测方法
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1.现代电力系统仿真控制与绿色电能新技术教育部重点实验室(东北电力大学),吉林 吉林 132011; 2.中国电力科学研究院有限公司新能源与储能运行控制国家重点实验室,北京 100192

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国家重点研发计划项目资助(2022YFB2403000)


Short-term wind power group forecasting method based on graph neural networks
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1. Key Laboratory of Modern Power System Simulation and Control & Renewable Energy Technology, Ministry of Education (Northeast Electric Power University), Jilin 132011, China; 2. State Key Laboratory of Operation and Control of Renewable Energy & Storage Systems, China Electric Power Research Institute, Beijing 100192, China

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    摘要:

    为降低风电波动性对电力系统的影响,提出了计及时空关联性的大规模风电场群短期功率预测方法,同步输出所有风电场的短期功率预测结果。首先,提出了综合考虑风速、风向的空间相关性评价指标,进一步建立表征风电场群时空相关性的图拓扑结构。然后,构建一种深度残差图注意力网络挖掘多风电场间的时空相关特征,在训练过程中保存数据中蕴含的时空价值信息。最后,提出了虚假预测评价指标,评估场站预测功率在汇聚成集群预测功率时的虚假预测成分,使场群预测结果评价更加公平。以中国吉林省的某20个风电场组成的风电场群为研究对象开展实验,实验结果表明提出的风电功率预测模型的日前功率预测准确率达到91.68%。

    Abstract:

    To reduce the impact of wind power fluctuations on power systems, a short-term power forecasting method for large-scale wind farm clusters is proposed, which accounts for spatiotemporal correlation and simultaneously outputs short-term power predictions for all wind farms. First, an evaluation index that comprehensively considers the spatial correlation of wind speed and direction is proposed, and a graph topology structure is further established to characterize the spatiotemporal correlation of wind farm clusters. Then, a deep residual graph attention network is constructed to mine the spatiotemporal correlation features between multiple wind farms, preserving the valuable spatiotemporal information embedded in the data during training. Finally, a false prediction evaluation index is proposed to assess the false prediction components of the predicted power at the station when aggregated into cluster prediction power, making a fairer evaluation of cluster prediction results. Experiments are conducted using a cluster composed of 20 wind farms in Jilin province, China. Results show that the proposed wind power forecasting model achieves a day-ahead power prediction accuracy rate of 91.68%.

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杨 茂,郭镇鹏,王 达,等.基于图神经网络的短期风电功率群体预测方法[J].电力系统保护与控制,2025,53(19):79-88.[YANG Mao, GUO Zhenpeng, WANG Da, et al. Short-term wind power group forecasting method based on graph neural networks[J]. Power System Protection and Control,2025,V53(19):79-88]

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  • 收稿日期:2024-09-03
  • 最后修改日期:2024-11-17
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-09-28
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