基于CNN-BiLSTM-Attention的超短期电力负荷预测
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(1.河南理工大学计算机科学与技术学院,河南 焦作 454000;2.许继电气直流输电分公司,河南 许昌 461000;3.河南理工大学机械与动力工程学院,河南 焦作 454000)

作者简介:

任建吉(1982—),男,博士,副教授,研究方向为分布式计算、大数据分析;E-mail: renjianji@hpu.edu.cn 原永亮(1989—),男,通信作者,博士,讲师,研究方向为多学科协同优化、群智能优化算法。E-mail: yuanyongliang@hpu.edu.cn

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河南省科技攻关项目资助(212102210226);河南理工大学博士基金项目资助(B2021-31);河南省高等学校重点科研项目资助(22A520029)


Ultra-short-term power load forecasting based on CNN-BiLSTM-Attention
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(1. College of Computer Science and Technology, Henan Polytechnic University, Jiaozuo 454000, China; 2. HVDC Transmission Branch of XJ Group Co., Ltd., Xuchang 461000, China;3. School of Mechanical and Power Engineering, Henan Polytechnic University, Jiaozuo 454000, China)

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    摘要:

    超短期电力负荷预测对电力系统的快速响应和实时调度至关重要,准确预测负荷能保障电力系统的安全并提高用电效率。为获得准确可靠的负荷预测结果,针对电网负荷数据非线性和时序性等特征,提出了一种基于CNN-BiLSTM-Attention(AC-BiLSTM)的新型超短期电力负荷预测方法。该方法首先将卷积神经网络(CNN)和双向长短期记忆(BiLSTM)网络相结合充分提取负荷数据本身的时空特征。然后引入注意力(Attention)机制自动为BiLSTM隐藏层状态分配相应的权重,以区分不同时间负荷序列的重要性,能够有效减少历史信息的丢失并突出关键历史时间点的信息。最后通过全连接层输出最终负荷预测结果。以某地区真实负荷数据为例进行了实验分析。通过两种实验场景对比,验证了该方法具有较高的预测精度,可以为电力系统规划和稳定运行提供可靠的依据。

    Abstract:

    Ultra-short-term power load forecasting is crucial for rapid response and real-time dispatch in a power system. Accurate load forecasting ensures the safety of the power system and improves electricity efficiency. To obtain accurate and reliable load forecasting results, a new ultra-short-term power load forecasting method based on CNN-BiLSTM-Attention (AC-BiLSTM) is proposed for the characteristics of nonlinear and time-series nature of grid load data. First, a convolutional neural network (CNN) and bidirectional long and short-term memory (BiLSTM) networks are used to extract the spatio-temporal features of the load data. The attention mechanism automatically assigns corresponding weights to BiLSTM to distinguish the importance of different time load sequences. These can effectively reduce the loss of historical information and highlight the information of key historical time points. Finally, the final load prediction results are output through the fully connected layer. Taking the real load data of a certain area as an example, the comparison between two experimental scenarios proves that the proposed method has high prediction accuracy and can provide a reliable basis for power system planning and stable operation. This work is supported by the Science and Technology Planning Project of Henan Province (No. 212102210226).

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任建吉,位慧慧,邹卓霖,等.基于CNN-BiLSTM-Attention的超短期电力负荷预测[J].电力系统保护与控制,2022,50(8):108-116.[REN Jianji, WEI Huihui, ZOU Zhuolin, et al. Ultra-short-term power load forecasting based on CNN-BiLSTM-Attention[J]. Power System Protection and Control,2022,V50(8):108-116]

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  • 收稿日期:2021-08-31
  • 最后修改日期:2021-11-26
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  • 在线发布日期: 2022-04-14
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