基于CEEMD和GWO的超短期风速预测
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(兰州大学数学与统计学院,甘肃 兰州730000)

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王 静(1992—),女,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为数据分析与建模;E-mail:448457173@qq.com
李维德(1967—),男,通信作者,博士,教授,主要从事数据分析与建模方面的研究。E-mail:weideli@lzu.edu.cn

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国家自然科学基金资助(41571016)


Ultra-short-term forecasting of wind speed based on CEEMD and GWO
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(School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China)

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    摘要:

    风电场风速预测对电力系统的合理调度、安全运行等方面有重大的影响。针对风速时间序列的非线性特征造成其预测精度不佳的问题,采用基于互补型集成经验模态分解和灰狼优化算法优化支持向量回归机的超短期风速组合预测模型来解决。首先利用该模型对非平稳的风速时间序列进行CEEMD分解,分解为一系列的相对平稳分量。然后对各个分量利用灰狼算法优化SVR进行预测。最后,将每一个分量的预测结果集成输出作为最终的风速预测结果。结果表明,该预测模型比其他智能算法基准模型预测精度高,且在风速预测中具有优越性。

    Abstract:

    Forecasting of wind speed has a big influence on the rational dispatch and safety operation of electric power system. Aiming at the problem that the nonlinear characteristics of wind speed time series cause its poor prediction accuracy, a combined model based on complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition and a support vector regression machine optimized by Gray Wolf Optimization (GWO) algorithm is used to predict ultra-short-term wind speed. First, the non-stationary wind speed time series is decomposed into a series of relatively stationary components by CEEMD. Then, each component is predicted by SVR optimized by GWO. Finally, the prediction values of each sequence are superimposed as the final prediction of wind speed. The results show that the prediction model is more accurate compared with other intelligent algorithm benchmark models and has superiority in wind speed prediction. This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41571016).

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王静,李维德.基于CEEMD和GWO的超短期风速预测[J].电力系统保护与控制,2018,46(9):69-74.[WANG Jing, LI Weide. Ultra-short-term forecasting of wind speed based on CEEMD and GWO[J]. Power System Protection and Control,2018,V46(9):69-74]

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  • 收稿日期:2017-04-22
  • 最后修改日期:2017-06-13
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  • 在线发布日期: 2018-05-02
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