一种基于云预测模型的电网综合风险评估方法
CSTR:
作者:
作者单位:

作者简介:

胡文平(1968-),男,博士,高工,主要研究领域为电网分析与计算、电能质量和分布式能源;

通讯作者:

中图分类号:

基金项目:


A comprehensive power grid risk assessment method based on cloud prediction model
Author:
Affiliation:

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 资源附件
  • |
  • 文章评论
    摘要:

    电网综合风险评估能有效提高电网安全运行水平,为电力系统可靠运行提供安全保障。提出了一种基于云预测模型的电网综合风险评估方法。将云理论应用于输变电设备故障不确定推理预测,构建基于条件云发生器的云语言预测规则,在此基础上提出了基于云推理的输变电设备故障率预测模型。同时,基于效用理论构建了一套包括电压越限、极限输送功率、潜在连锁故障和系统稳定指数的电网综合风险评估指标体系。该方法能够科学合理地对电网进行综合风险评估,扫描电网运行薄弱环节。结合某地区电网运行实际数据进行了计算分析,计算结果表明该方法有效且实用。

    Abstract:

    Comprehensive power grid risk assessments can effectively improve the management level and strengthen the security of power grid operation, to ensure reliable operation of the power system. This paper raises a comprehensive power grid risk assessment method based on cloud prediction model. First, the cloud theory is used in power transmission equipment failure prediction to build prediction rule based on cloud generator. On the basis of the prediction rule, a cloud-based power transmission equipment failure rate prediction model is built. And a power grid assessment system is raised based on utility theory, including over limited voltage index, limit transmission power index, potential cascading failure index, and system stability index. The assessment method could be used to estimate the comprehensive risk of power grid in order to scan the weakness in grid operation. Finally, the effectiveness and practicality of the power grid risk assessment method based on cloud prediction model is verified by an actual case.

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文

胡文平,于腾凯,巫伟南.一种基于云预测模型的电网综合风险评估方法[J].电力系统保护与控制,2015,43(5):35-42.[HU Wenping, YU Tengkai, WU Weinan. A comprehensive power grid risk assessment method based on cloud prediction model[J]. Power System Protection and Control,2015,V43(5):35-42]

复制
分享
相关视频

文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
  • HTML阅读次数:
  • 引用次数:
历史
  • 收稿日期:2014-05-06
  • 最后修改日期:2014-10-13
  • 录用日期:
  • 在线发布日期: 2015-02-13
  • 出版日期:
文章二维码
关闭
关闭