基于最小过热区域的城市配电网灾害风险评估

俞隽亚; 王增平; 田红雨; 鹿伟; 云辰太; 黄哲洙

引用本文:	俞隽亚,王增平,田红雨,等.基于最小过热区域的城市配电网灾害风险评估[J].电力系统保护与控制,2015,43(4):115-120.
	YU Junya,WANG Zengping,TIAN Hongyu,et al.Risk assessment of urban distribution network under disaster based on minimum over-heated region[J].Power System Protection and Control,2015,43(4):115-120

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基于最小过热区域的城市配电网灾害风险评估
俞隽亚¹, 王增平¹, 田红雨², 鹿伟¹, 云辰太¹, 黄哲洙²
1.新能源电力系统国家重点实验室，华北电力大学，北京 102206;2.国网辽宁省电力有限公司沈阳供电公司，辽宁沈阳 110811

摘要:

目前配电网风险评估直接应用于实际预警预案还存在一定困难。研究并提出了一种基于最小过热区域的城市配电网灾害风险评估方法。通过分析各类灾害下相应最小过热区域的停运概率，计算灾害下配网负荷停电风险，并以此为判据进行实时预警预案。考虑了配网自身的自愈控制，克服了传统配电网灾害风险评估中的保守计算。显著提升了计算速度，有能力评估灾害下多条关联馈线段同时成为初始故障源时的风险情况，并量化了灾害下配网负荷的停电损失，可用于比较不同工况下不同灾害的危害程度。最后以实际城市配电网为例验证了所提出方法的实用性、通用性和高效性

关键词: 配电网停电风险最小过热区域预警预案

DOI：10.7667/j.issn.1674-3415.2015.04.018

分类号:

基金项目:国家电网公司科技项目(KJ[2013]896)

Risk assessment of urban distribution network under disaster based on minimum over-heated region

YU Junya¹, WANG Zengping¹, TIAN Hongyu², LU Wei¹, YUN Chentai¹, HUANG Zhezhu²

1.State Key Laboratory for Alternate Electrical Power System with Renewable Energy Sources, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China;2.Shenyang Power Supply Company, State Grid Liaoning Electric Company Power Supply Limited, Shenyang 110811, China

Abstract:

Currently difficulties exist still in directly applying urban distribution network risk assessment to the practical early warning and plans. This paper proposes a risk assessment method of urban distribution network under disaster based on minimum over-heated region. By analyzing the outage probability of relevant minimum over-heated region under various disasters, it calculates the outage risk value of loads and applies it as a criterion for timely early warning and plans. This paper takes the self-healing control of distribution network into consideration, overcomes the conservative calculation of traditional risk assessment; significantly enhances the computing speed while quantifies the power loss to compare the extent of damage under different operational states. This paper uses the real urban distribution network as an example to verify the practicality, versatility and high-efficiency of this method.

Key words: distribution network power failure risk minimum over-heated region early warning and plans

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