引用本文: | 张建芬,王克文.几种概率电压稳定分析方法计算误差的对比分析[J].电力系统保护与控制,2018,46(16):38-45.[点击复制] |
ZHANG Jianfen,WANG Kewen.Comparison and analysis on computation errors of several probabilistic voltage stability analysis methods[J].Power System Protection and Control,2018,46(16):38-45[点击复制] |
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摘要: |
对电力系统进行电压稳定研究时,为了考虑负荷的随机变化和大规模风电并网引入的发电机出力变化,多种概率电压稳定分析方法先后被提出。分析比较了概率直接法、两点估计法和随机响应面法三种概率电压稳定分析方法的计算误差和计算效率。首先对各种计算方法的原理和步骤进行研究,并找出了可能影响计算误差的因素:负荷随机变量的标准差、风电场风速相关性和负荷随机变量的分布形式。然后在39节点算例系统上进行仿真计算。以蒙特卡洛方法的结果作为参考,比较了各种方法的计算误差和计算效率。分析了负荷随机变量标准差、风电场风速相关性和负荷随机变量分布形式不同,对各种方法计算误差的影响。计算结果表明,随机响应面法计算误差最小,而概率直接法用时最少。 |
关键词: 概率电压稳定 概率直接法 两点估计法 随机响应面法 累积量 累积概率 |
DOI:10.7667/PSPC171159 |
投稿时间:2017-08-01修订日期:2017-12-13 |
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(51307071) |
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Comparison and analysis on computation errors of several probabilistic voltage stability analysis methods |
ZHANG Jianfen,WANG Kewen |
(College of Electrical and Information, Jinan University, Zhuhai 519070, China;School of Electrical Engineering, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China) |
Abstract: |
In order to consider the uncertainties of random loads and outputs of wind turbines due to stochastic wind speed, different probabilistic voltage stability analysis methods have been presented to study the voltage stability of power system. The computational accuracy and efficiency of probabilistic direct method, two-point estimate method and stochastic response surface method are compared. The principle and steps of these three methods are studied, the factors of random load standard deviation, correlation coefficient of wind speed and the distributions of random loads which probably affect the computational errors are determined. The 39-bus system is used for simulation study by three methods above. The computational errors and efficiency of these probabilistic methods are compared with the results of Monte Carlo method. The effects of random load standard deviation, correlation coefficient of wind speed and the distributions of random loads on the computational errors are studied. The calculation results show that stochastic response surface method has the least computational errors, while probabilistic direct method spends the least computation time. This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51307071). |
Key words: probabilistic voltage stability probabilistic direct method two-point estimate method stochastic response surface method cumulant cumulative probability |