引用本文: | 赵飞,眭欢然,戴岩,等.基于随机模糊理论和改进马尔科夫法的变压器寿命评估[J].电力系统保护与控制,2014,42(15):39-44.[点击复制] |
ZHAO Fei,SUI Huan-ran,DAI Yan,et al.Power transformers life assessment based on random fuzzy theory and improved Markov method[J].Power System Protection and Control,2014,42(15):39-44[点击复制] |
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摘要: |
为了全面评估变压器的剩余寿命,从变压器性能衰退的角度和健康指数特性出发,考虑变压器寿命相关因素,采用变压器寿命评估三级系统,给出了变压器历年健康指数计算方法。基于变压器的历年健康指数,在传统马尔科夫预测模型的基础上,建立了改进的马尔科夫预测模型。考虑了不确定性因素对模型的影响,进行了不确定性修正,实现对变压器的寿命预测。通过某火电厂的实际算例验证了评估方法的可行性。 |
关键词: 变压器 随机模糊 健康指数 改进马尔科夫模型 不确定性 寿命预测 |
DOI:10.7667/j.issn.1674-3415.2014.15.007 |
投稿时间:2013-10-22修订日期:2013-12-16 |
基金项目: |
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Power transformers life assessment based on random fuzzy theory and improved Markov method |
ZHAO Fei,SUI Huan-ran,DAI Yan,WU Hong-mei,MA Yan-feng,ZHAO Guang-zhong |
(Huludao Electric Power Company, Huludao 125000, China;School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Baoding 071003, China) |
Abstract: |
In order to estimate transformer remain life, from the perspective of transformer performance degradation and health indices characteristics, considering the relevant factors of transformer life, based on transformer life assessment three stages systems, the calculation method of every year health index is put forword. Then considering the uncertainty factors, an improved Markov prediction model is founded for the prediction of the transformer life. The example verifies the feasibility of this method. |
Key words: transformers random fuzzy health index improved Markov model uncertainty life prediction |